Accurate soil moisture information is crucial for developing precise irrigation control strategies to enhance water use efficiency. Soil moisture estimation based on limited soil moisture sensors is crucial for obtaining comprehensive soil moisture information when dealing with large-scale agricultural fields. The major challenge in soil moisture estimation lies in the high dimensionality of the spatially discretized agro-hydrological models. In this work, we propose a performance-triggered adaptive model reduction approach to address this challenge. The proposed approach employs a trajectory-based unsupervised machine learning technique, and a prediction performance-based triggering scheme is designed to govern model updates adaptively in a way such that the prediction error between the reduced model and the original model over a prediction horizon is maintained below a predetermined threshold. An adaptive extended Kalman filter (EKF) is designed based on the reduced model for soil moisture estimation. The applicability and performance of the proposed approach are evaluated extensively through the application to a simulated large-scale agricultural field.

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