Capturing dynamics of operational similarity among terrorist groups is critical to provide actionable insights for counter-terrorism and intelligence monitoring. Yet, in spite of its theoretical and practical relevance, research addressing this problem is currently lacking. We tackle this problem proposing a novel computational framework for detecting clusters of terrorist groups sharing similar behaviors, focusing on groups' yearly repertoire of deployed tactics, attacked targets, and utilized weapons. Specifically considering those organizations that have plotted at least 50 attacks from 1997 to 2018, accounting for a total of 105 groups responsible for more than 42,000 events worldwide, we offer three sets of results. First, we show that over the years global terrorism has been characterized by increasing operational cohesiveness. Second, we highlight that year-to-year stability in co-clustering among groups has been particularly high from 2009 to 2018, indicating temporal consistency of similarity patterns in the last decade. Third, we demonstrate that operational similarity between two organizations is driven by three factors: (a) their overall activity; (b) the difference in the diversity of their operational repertoires; (c) the difference in a combined measure of diversity and activity. Groups' operational preferences, geographical homophily and ideological affinity have no consistent role in determining operational similarity.


翻译:然而,尽管研究在理论和实践上具有相关性,但目前还缺乏解决这一问题的研究。第二,我们强调,2009年至2018年期间,各集团之间联合集结的年间稳定程度特别高,表明过去十年中类似模式的时间一致性。第三,我们表明,两个组织之间的业务相似性受三个因素驱动:(a) 其总体活动;(b) 其业务重整的多样性差异;(c) 多样性和活动的综合度的差异。

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