Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.

翻译：尽管亚洲让球（AH）足球（足球）博彩市场极为流行，但有关文献尚未充分研究其效率。本文将等级系统与贝叶斯网络相结合，并提出了第一篇专门开发用于预测和评估AH博彩市场效率的模型。结果基于13个英格兰超级联赛赛季，与传统市场（赢、输或平）进行了比较。研究了不同的投注情况，包括a）平均和最大（最佳可用）市场赔率，b）预测和公布赔率之间的所有可能的投注决策阈值，c）基于投资回报和利润的优化，以及d）简单的投注调整，以调查在定位传统和AH市场中等效利润时回报的方差如何变化。尽管AH市场被发现与传统市场共享无效性，但研究结果揭示了两者之间的有趣差异以及相似之处。