Independent sociological polls are forbidden in Belarus. Online polls performed without sound scientific rigour do not yield representative results. Yet, both inside and outside Belarus it is of great importance to obtain precise estimates of the ratings of all candidates. These ratings could function as reliable proxies for the election's outcomes. We conduct an independent poll based on the combination of the data collected via Viber and on the streets of Belarus. The Viber and the street data samples consist of almost 45000 and 1150 unique observations respectively. Bayesian regressions with poststratification were build to estimate ratings of the candidates and rates of early voting turnout for the population as a whole and within various focus subgroups. We show that both the officially announced results of the election and early voting rates are highly improbable. With a probability of at least 95%, Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya's rating lies between 75% and 80%, whereas Aliaksandr Lukashenka's rating lies between 13% and 18% and early voting rate predicted by the method ranges from 9% to 13% of those who took part in the election. These results contradict the officially announced outcomes, which are 10.12%, 80.11%, and 49.54% respectively and lie far outside even the 99.9% credible intervals predicted by our model. The only marginal groups of people where the upper bounds of the 99.9% credible intervals of the rating of Lukashenka are above 50% are people older than 60 and uneducated people. For all other marginal subgroups, including rural residents, even the upper bounds of 99.9% credible intervals for Lukashenka are far below 50%. The same is true for the population as a whole. Thus, with a probability of at least 99.9% Lukashenka could not have had enough electoral support to win the 2020 presidential election in Belarus.

翻译：白俄罗斯禁止独立社会民意测验。 在白俄罗斯, 没有科学严谨度的在线民意测验并不产生代表性结果。 然而, 在白俄罗斯内外, 获得准确估计所有候选人的评分非常重要。 这些评分可以作为选举结果的可靠代理人。 我们根据通过Viber和白俄罗斯街头收集的数据进行独立民意测验。 Viber和街头数据样本分别包含近45000和1150种独特的观察结果。 巴伊西亚的民意测验显示,通过民意测验来估计候选人的评分和整个人口和不同重点分组内的提前投票率。 然而,无论在白俄罗斯内外,获得准确估计所有候选人的评分和提前投票率都非常重要。 我们显示,官方公布的选举结果和早期投票率都非常不可能。 至少95%, Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya的评分在75%和80%之间。 而Aliaksandr Lukashenka的评分在13%至18 %之间, 而根据方法预测,所有选民的投票率从99-9%到13%不等。 这些结果甚至与官方宣布的结果相矛盾。