A popular branch of stochastic network calculus (SNC) utilizes moment-generating functions (MGFs) to characterize arrivals and services, which enables end-to-end performance analysis. However, existing traffic models for SNC cannot effectively represent the complicated nature of real-world network traffic such as dramatic burstiness. To conquer this challenge, we propose an adaptive spatial-temporal traffic model: dMAPAR-HMM. Specifically, we model the temporal on-off switching process as a dual Markovian arrival process (dMAP) and the arrivals during the on phases as an autoregressive hidden Markov model (AR-HMM). The dMAPAR-HMM model fits in with the MGF-SNC analysis framework, unifies various state-of-the-art arrival models, and matches real-world data more closely. We perform extensive experiments with real-world traces under different network topologies and utilization levels. Experimental results show that dMAPAR-HMM significantly outperforms prevailing models in MGF-SNC.

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