The recent wave of artificial intelligence, epitomized by large language models (LLMs),has presented opportunities and challenges for methodological innovation in political science,sparking discussions on a potential paradigm shift in the social sciences. However, how can weunderstand the impact of LLMs on knowledge production and paradigm transformation in thesocial sciences from a comprehensive perspective that integrates technology and methodology? What are LLMs' specific applications and representative innovative methods in political scienceresearch? These questions, particularly from a practical methodological standpoint, remainunderexplored. This paper proposes the "Intelligent Computing Social Modeling" (ICSM) methodto address these issues by clarifying the critical mechanisms of LLMs. ICSM leverages thestrengths of LLMs in idea synthesis and action simulation, advancing intellectual exploration inpolitical science through "simulated social construction" and "simulation validation." Bysimulating the U.S. presidential election, this study empirically demonstrates the operationalpathways and methodological advantages of ICSM. By integrating traditional social scienceparadigms, ICSM not only enhances the quantitative paradigm's capability to apply big data toassess the impact of factors but also provides qualitative paradigms with evidence for socialmechanism discovery at the individual level, offering a powerful tool that balances interpretabilityand predictability in social science research. The findings suggest that LLMs will drivemethodological innovation in political science through integration and improvement rather thandirect substitution.

翻译：以大型语言模型为代表的新一轮人工智能浪潮，为政治科学的方法论创新带来了机遇与挑战，引发了社会科学领域潜在范式转变的讨论。然而，我们如何从技术与方法论融合的综合视角，理解大型语言模型对社会科学知识生产与范式转型的影响？大型语言模型在政治科学研究中有哪些具体应用和代表性创新方法？这些问题，特别是从实践方法论的立场来看，仍未得到充分探讨。本文提出“智能计算社会建模”方法，通过厘清大型语言模型的关键机制来应对上述问题。该方法利用大型语言模型在观点综合与行为模拟方面的优势，通过“模拟社会建构”与“模拟验证”，推动政治科学领域的智识探索。本研究通过模拟美国总统选举，实证展示了智能计算社会建模的操作路径与方法论优势。通过整合传统社会科学范式，该方法不仅增强了定量范式运用大数据评估因素影响的能力，也为定性范式提供了在个体层面发现社会机制的证据，为社会科学研究提供了一种平衡可解释性与可预测性的有力工具。研究结果表明，大型语言模型将通过整合与改进而非直接替代，驱动政治科学的方法论创新。