Recent works have explored the fundamental role of depth estimation in multi-view stereo (MVS) and semantic scene completion (SSC). They generally construct 3D cost volumes to explore geometric correspondence in depth, and estimate such volumes in a single step relying directly on the ground truth approximation. However, such problem cannot be thoroughly handled in one step due to complex empirical distributions, especially in challenging regions like occlusions, reflections, etc. In this paper, we formulate the depth estimation task as a multi-step distribution approximation process, and introduce a new paradigm of modeling the Volumetric Probability Distribution progressively (step-by-step) following a Markov chain with Diffusion models (VPDD). Specifically, to constrain the multi-step generation of volume in VPDD, we construct a meta volume guidance and a confidence-aware contextual guidance as conditional geometry priors to facilitate the distribution approximation. For the sampling process, we further investigate an online filtering strategy to maintain consistency in volume representations for stable training. Experiments demonstrate that our plug-and-play VPDD outperforms the state-of-the-arts for tasks of MVS and SSC, and can also be easily extended to different baselines to get improvement. It is worth mentioning that we are the first camera-based work that surpasses LiDAR-based methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset.

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