The odds ratio estimated from a clinical trial can be proven mathematically to be constant for the full range of outcome risks if and only if the distribution of diagnostic test values in those with and without each outcome is the same in those on treatment and control. This property of predictive diagnostic tests allows the efficacy of treatments in randomized controlled trials to be estimated without having to randomize and for an individual patient's particular test result to be interpreted by the diagnostician. It also provides a new approach to modelling counterfactuals and to provide an insight into how a treatment modifies disease mechanisms to have its effect on the odds ratio. This novel clinical therapeutic model is illustrated by using data from the IRMA2 randomized controlled trial that assessed the efficacy of the angiotensin receptor blocker irbesartan in lowering the risk of diabetic nephropathy in patients conditional on different urinary albumin excretion rates.

翻译：临床试验估计的几率在数学上可以证明,对于各种结果风险而言,概率比率是常态的,如果而且只有在诊断测试值在具有和没有产生结果的人中的分布在治疗和控制的人中是相同的,那么只有这样,临床试验估计的几率才能在全部结果风险中保持不变。这种预测性诊断性诊断性测试的特性使得随机控制的试验的治疗效果是可以估计的,而不必随机地进行,而个别病人的特定试验结果则由诊断师来解释。它还提供了一种新的方法来模拟反事实,并深入了解治疗如何改变疾病机制,使其对胜率产生影响。这种新的临床治疗模式通过使用IRMA2随机控制的试验的数据加以说明,该试验评估了血管活性受体阻塞剂IRBesartan在降低以不同排泄率为条件的病人的糖尿病肾脏病风险方面的效率。