In recent decades, new methods and approaches have been developed for forecasting intermittent demand series. However, the majority of research has focused on point forecasting, with little exploration into probabilistic intermittent demand forecasting. This is despite the fact that probabilistic forecasting is crucial for effective decision-making under uncertainty and inventory management. Additionally, most literature on this topic has focused solely on forecasting performance and has overlooked the inventory implications, which are directly relevant to intermittent demand. To address these gaps, this study aims to construct probabilistic forecasting combinations for intermittent demand while considering both forecasting accuracy and inventory control utility in obtaining combinations and evaluating forecasts. Our empirical findings demonstrate that combinations perform better than individual approaches for forecasting intermittent demand, but there is a trade-off between forecasting and inventory performance.

翻译：近几十年来，已经开发了许多新的方法和方法来预测不确定需求系列。然而，大多数研究都关注点预测，而很少探索不确定需求概率预测。尽管在不确定情况下，概率预测对于有效的决策制定和库存管理至关重要。此外，这个主题上的大多数文献都仅关注预测性能，而忽略了与不确定需求直接相关的库存影响。为了解决这些问题，本研究旨在构建不确定需求的概率预测组合，同时考虑预测准确性和库存控制效用以获取组合并评估预测。我们的实证结果表明，与单个方法相比，组合在预测不确定需求方面表现更好，但是预测和库存表现之间存在权衡。