A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow's technology.

翻译：一个强有力的防扩散机制已将核武器扩散限制在仅九个国家的范围内。然而，新兴颠覆性技术正在重塑核风险格局，为决策者带来了一个关键转折点。本文勾勒出一场被忽视但日益加剧的核（非）可见性技术军备竞赛的轮廓，这场竞赛由扩散赋能技术（PETs）与探测增强技术（DETs）之间的相互作用所驱动。我们认为，扩散的战略模式将日益受到这些领域创新速度的影响。人工智能（AI）为此引入了前所未有的复杂性，其快速扩展和知识替代能力加速了PET的发展，并对传统的监测与核查方法构成了挑战。为分析这一动态，我们建立了一个以相对优势指数（RAI）为核心的形式化模型，量化PET与DET之间不断变化的平衡关系。该模型探讨了不对称的技术进步——特别是由AI驱动的PET逻辑增长与DET的阶段性改进——如何扩大围绕扩散可探测性的不确定性范围。通过可复现的基于情景的模拟，我们评估了不同PET增长率与DET投资策略对累积核突破风险的影响。我们识别出一个前方的战略分叉点：若缺乏更广泛的PET治理，仅靠探测可能将不再足够。因此，各国政府和国际组织应投资于足够灵活的政策和工具，以跟上未来技术的发展步伐。