We construct a polynomial-time classical algorithm that samples from the output distribution of low-depth noisy Clifford circuits with any product-state inputs and final single-qubit measurements in any basis. This class of circuits includes Clifford-magic circuits and Conjugated-Clifford circuits, which are important candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage using non-universal gates. Additionally, our results generalize a simulation algorithm for IQP circuits [Rajakumar et. al, SODA'25] to the case of IQP circuits augmented with CNOT gates, which is another class of non-universal circuits that are relevant to current experiments. Importantly, our results do not require randomness assumptions over the circuit families considered (such as anticoncentration properties) and instead hold for every circuit in each class. This allows us to place tight limitations on the robustness of these circuits to noise. In particular, we show that there is no quantum advantage at large depths with realistically noisy Clifford circuits, even with perfect magic state inputs, or IQP circuits with CNOT gates, even with arbitrary diagonal non-Clifford gates. The key insight behind the algorithm is that interspersed noise causes a decay of long-range entanglement, and at depths beyond a critical threshold, the noise builds up to an extent that most correlations can be classically simulated. To prove our results, we merge techniques from percolation theory with tools from Pauli path analysis.

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