This paper provides a model to analyze and identify a decision maker's (DM's) hypothetical reasoning. Using this model, I show that a DM's propensity to engage in hypothetical thinking is captured exactly by her ability to recognize implications (i.e., to identify that one hypothesis implies another) and that this later relation is captured by a DM's observable behavior. Thus, this characterization both provides a concrete definition of (flawed) hypothetical reasoning and, importantly, yields a methodology to identify these judgments from standard economic data.

翻译：本文件提供了一个模型,用以分析和确定决策者(DM)的假设推理。我利用这一模型表明,DM倾向于从事假设思维正是因为她有能力认识到影响(即确定一种假设意味着另一种假设),而这种后期关系则由DM的可观察行为所体现。因此,这种定性既为(固定的)假设推理提供了具体定义,而且重要的是,从标准经济数据中得出确定这些判断的方法。