While effective in practice, iterative methods for solving large systems of linear equations can be significantly affected by problem-dependent condition number quantities. This makes characterizing their time complexity challenging, particularly when we wish to make comparisons between deterministic and stochastic methods, that may or may not rely on preconditioning and/or fast matrix multiplication. In this work, we consider a fine-grained notion of complexity for iterative linear solvers which we call the spectral tail condition number, $\kappa_\ell$, defined as the ratio between the $\ell$th largest and the smallest singular value of the matrix representing the system. Concretely, we prove the following main algorithmic result: Given an $n\times n$ matrix $A$ and a vector $b$, we can find $\tilde{x}$ such that $\|A\tilde{x}-b\|\leq\epsilon\|b\|$ in time $\tilde{O}(\kappa_\ell\cdot n^2\log 1/\epsilon)$ for any $\ell = O(n^{\frac1{\omega-1}})=O(n^{0.729})$, where $\omega \approx 2.372$ is the current fast matrix multiplication exponent. This guarantee is achieved by Sketch-and-Project with Nesterov's acceleration. Some of the implications of our result, and of the use of $\kappa_\ell$, include direct improvement over a fine-grained analysis of the Conjugate Gradient method, suggesting a stronger separation between deterministic and stochastic iterative solvers; and relating the complexity of iterative solvers to the ongoing algorithmic advances in fast matrix multiplication, since the bound on $\ell$ improves with $\omega$. Our main technical contributions are new sharp characterizations for the first and second moments of the random projection matrix that commonly arises in sketching algorithms, building on a combination of techniques from combinatorial sampling via determinantal point processes and Gaussian universality results from random matrix theory.

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